Oof...not liking these trends. 12z Euro also showing a coastal storm looping off the coast of New Jersey and lingering around until Tuesday, when it comes ashore in a weakened form and dissipates. Definitely needs watching this week. #njwx
End of this morning's 06z Euro run next Saturday morning...track similar to 00z run to this point, but storm is slightly stronger.
Mixed signals coming in from operational and ensemble runs for next weekend. 00z Euro ensembles show a coastal low with a decent cluster of members well west (and closer to the coast) of the ensemble mean low. Meanwhile, the 06z GEFS ensembles shift way east while the 06z GFS operational run brings what looks to me like a legit tropical storm with 60+ mph winds right into New Jersey. A lot to watch this week. #njwx
12z GFS brings more rain to North Jersey than it did on the 06z run, but it still doesn’t eclipse 2” there (looks like around 1.7” is the max). Still, it looks more in line with the 12z HRRR I shared earlier. And that reminds me that I never shared this morning’s WPC update that all of New Jersey — except extreme South Jersey, where there is no risk category — is now at just a marginal (level 1/4) risk for excessive rainfall Sunday. That cutoff might be brought even farther north later. #njwx
Won't show it for ethical reasons, but the precipitation map on the 06z GFS for this same time (2 a.m. on October 5) shows light snow/snow showers over Ulster County, NY…just about 50 miles from the NW corner of New Jersey.
Whoa! The 850mb temperature anomalies at the end of today’s 06z GFS run are insanely cold. Now, this would be 2 a.m. on October 5, but those dark purples represent 850mb temps about 20º below normal. While surface temperatures probably wouldn’t run that much colder, I’d say highs around the region would be capped in the low 60s for a stretch of early October IF this verifies. #njwx
Rain totals for Sunday seriously downtrending on latest model guidance. According to today’s 06z Euro and GFS runs, no one in New Jersey sees over 1.5” of rain through 8 a.m. Monday. Euro keeps 1.0”+ rainfall north of I-78. Both models now show 0.3” of rain or less for all of South Jersey. This morning’s 12z HRRR is similar, but does show a patch of 2.0”+ rainfall in NW New Jersey. Simulated precip loop from 12z HRRR looks kind of meh, and is similar to other current guidance. Hmm. #njwx
I know everyone is talking about the rain Sunday & potential for coastal storms over the next couple of weeks, but I just saw this and find it amazing…especially since the Climate Prediction Center finally gave up on the idea of above-normal temps for us the rest of September. Look at the temps for Trenton & areas NW of I-95 in New Jersey from 2 a.m. Tuesday through Saturday morning on today’s 18z GFS. The model suggests temps are capped in the 50s in those areas that entire stretch. #njwx
The WPC has reduced the excessive rainfall threat for much of New Jersey Sunday & Monday. Slight (Level 2/4) risk on Sunday is now confined to north of the I-195 corridor with areas to the south still at marginal (Level 1/4) risk. For Monday, only areas south of I-195 are at marginal risk. Total rainfall through 8am EDT Tuesday vastly different on the latest Euro & GFS runs. Euro not really showing much (a 1"+ band through the I-195 corridor), while the GFS has up to 2" in North Jersey. #njwx
This will be mentioned in the weekend update heard on @BlowUpRadio, of course, but the Weather Prediction Center has most of New Jersey under a SLIGHT (level 2 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall on Sunday and a MARGINAL (level 1 of 4) risk on Monday. #njwx
After today's 06z GFS still showed highs in the 80s for next Tuesday, the 12z run went back to showing highs in the mid to upper 60s with some low 70s sprinkled in. The 12z Euro went back to showing highs in the upper 60s/low 70s north of I-195 & mid to upper 70s in South Jersey. What I'm saying is that the current state of weather modeling means anything beyond a 3-day forecast is garbage.
By the way, I keep seeing 10-day forecasts around here showing highs in the upper 60s next Tuesday and Wednesday because that's what the GFS and Euro were showing yesterday. But guess what happened on last night's 00z model runs?! Yep...highs in the upper 70s and 80s. Here are yesterday's 12z Euro and the overnight 00z Euro for 8 pm next Tuesday. 🤦♂️
Good morning! Looks like the colder GFS solutions for this morning won out. For Monday's report, I went with upper 40s this morning only in North Jersey, but it looks like they went down into the 40s near the NWS Mount Holly office. #njwx
Hate sharing a TikTok link, but I can’t find anything on this outside of closed social media right now…anyway, despite waist-deep water along a stretch of the course, the organizers of the Racefaster Half-Marathon in Paramus, NJ, this morning decided to just go ahead with the race WITH NO CHANGES! And runners just went through it without telling the organizers to pound sand. This is insane. https://www.tiktok.com/@njdotcom/video/7685107399216205070
I asked NBC10's Justin Godynick about this. He was watching it, too. He says it was a mesolow.
There could have been a downburst from that mesolow that resulted in that CoCo signature. But that area of New Jersey is pretty desolate, though, so I guess we’ll never know.
Around 5" of rainfall, based on radar, around Totowa, just WSW of Paterson. #njwx
OK, now I think there may have been a brief tornado or downburst there because the Correlation Coefficient layer shows a possible debris signature right around the time the couplet perked up again. Weird.
There's even a notch in the line, which is sometimes indicative of embedded rotation. Now, I'm not saying a tornado is imminent because it's not. I'm just wondering why the radar isn't showing convection or rotation in that cell because there is clearly some there. #njwx
So...how is there no rotation marker on this cell in South Jersey? This is actually — and bizarrely — tightening up a bit. Interesting... #njwx
I was up at 2:30 am EDT and gave the radar a quick look. I honestly thought, "Oh, this is looking like a North Jersey thing. The excessive rainfall threat for Central NJ might bust." Well, North Jersey got pummeled, but Trenton into the New Brunswick area saw quite a few locations with 2"+ rainfall, especially closer to and in Trenton. #njwx